Quizás haya que subir los tipos antes (FOMC)

Capitalbolsa | 21 ago, 2014 07:59

Naturalmente, es sólo un "quizás". ¿Probable? Esto sería demasiado decir. Tres importantes mensajes desde las Actas publicadas ayer....

1. Participants generally agreed that both the recent improvement in labor market conditions and the cumulative progress over the past year had been greater than anticipated and that labor market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer
2. In their discussion of financial stability issues, participants noted evidence of valuation pressures in some particular asset markets, but those pressures did not appear to be widespread and other measures of vulnerability in the financial system were at low to moderate levels.
3. With respect to monetary policy over the medium run, participants generally agreed that labor market conditions and inflation had moved closer to the Committee's longer-run objectives in recent months, and most anticipated that progress toward those goals would continue.
En definitiva, admiten la mejora económica (más rápida de lo esperado); consideran que las variables objetivo, como inflación o desempleo, se han ajustado a objetivos considerados de largo plazo; pero todo ello no supone una mayor presión para acelerar la normalización monetaria. ¿La estabilidad financier? Depende, pero a muy corto plazo tampoco parece suponer que el comportamiento de los mercados obligue a actuar también rápidamente con los tipos de interés.
Esperar y ver. Pero, es cierto, con un creciente debate interno sobre cómo actuar en el futuro. Es una conclusion similar a la que obtuvimos también ayer al revisar las Actas del ultimo MPC.
Participants generally agreed that both the recent improvement in labor market conditions and the cumulative progress over the past year had been greater than anticipated and that labor market conditions had moved noticeably closer to those viewed as normal in the longer run. Participants differed, however, in their assessments of the remaining degree of labor market slack and how to measure it. A few argued that the unemployment rate continues to serve as a reliable summary statistic for the overall state of the labor market and thought that it should be the Committee's principal focus for evaluating labor market conditions. However, many participants continued to see a larger gap between current labor market conditions and those consistent with their assessments of normal levels of labor utilization than indicated by the difference between the unemployment rate and estimates of its longer-run normal level. These participants cited, for example, the still-elevated levels of longterm unemployment and workers employed part time for economic reasons as well as low labor force participation. Several participants pointed out that the recent drop in the unemployment rate had been associated with progress in reabsorbing the long-term unemployed into jobs and reducing part-time work, suggesting that slack was diminishing and could be reduced further as employment opportunities expanded.
In their discussion of financial stability issues, participants noted evidence of valuation pressures in some particular asset markets, but those pressures did not appear to be widespread and other measures of vulnerability in the financial system were at low to moderate levels. As a result, they generally saw the vulnerabilities in the financial system as well contained. Some participants discussed how the Committee might better incorporate financial stability risks in its discussion of macroeconomic risks. They also suggested that the Committee consider how promptly various financial stability concerns could be addressed, if need be, and which tools, including monetary policy and regulatory responses, would be most timely and effective in doing so.
With respect to monetary policy over the medium run, participants generally agreed that labor market conditions and inflation had moved closer to the Committee's longer-run objectives in recent months, and most anticipated that progress toward those goals would continue. Moreover, many participants noted that if convergence toward the Committee's objectives occurred more quickly than expected, it might become appropriate to begin removing monetary policy accommodation sooner than they currently anticipated. Indeed, some participants viewed the actual and expected progress toward the Committee's goals as sufficient to call for a relatively prompt move toward reducing policy accommodation to avoid overshooting the Committee's unemployment and inflation objectives over the medium
term. These participants were increasingly uncomfortable with the Committee's forward guidance. In their view, the guidance suggested a later initial increase in the target federal funds rate as well as lower future levels of the funds rate than they judged likely to be appropriate. They suggested that the guidance should more clearly communicate how policy-setting would respond to the evolution of economic data. However, most participants
indicated that any change in their expectations for the appropriate timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate would depend on further information on the trajectories of economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. In particular, although participants generally saw the drop in real GDP in the first quarter as transitory, some noted that it increased uncertainty about the outlook, and they were looking to additional data on production, spending, and labor market developments to shed light on the underlying pace of economic growth. Moreover, despite recent inflation developments, several participants continued to believe that inflation was likely to move back to the Committee's objective very slowly, thereby warranting a continuation of highly accommodative policy as long as projected inflation remained below 2 percent and longer-term inflation expectations were well anchored.
José Luis Martínez Campuzano
Estratega de Citi en España

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